Modelling · England
Premier League
Latest analysis
FixturePremier LeagueJoão Pedro: one certain fixture, and a date that can slip
The injury feed declares a return on 17 October, the very day of Everton – Chelsea. The absence therefore covers only one fixture for certain, where it costs 1.72 points of win probability. If the date slips, it is a different fixture, and a different figure.
Title racePremier LeagueWho will win the Premier League in 2026-27?
Manchester City and Arsenal are level on points and share 93% of the title. The model separates them on one detail — and England's best defence is not the one you would guess.
FixturePremier LeagueFoden is suspended, and City have never looked stronger
Sent off in the derby, the Englishman misses Sunderland's visit. Our model gives Manchester City 71% without him — and has them going backwards if he came in. This is not a charge against Foden; it is a survey of the area he used to own.
TitlePremier LeagueArsenal are not playing this derby. They stand to gain or lose nine points of probability.
Six days ago the English title was a coin flip. One win at Sunderland later, Arsenal lead by seventeen points of probability — nine of which rest on a match Manchester City have yet to play. It kicks off this afternoon at Old Trafford.
Table and projections
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 5 | 15 | +8 | 58% | 0% |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 5 | 12 | +4 | 31% | 0% |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 10 | +11 | 7% | 0% |
| 4 |  Brentford | 5 | 9 | +6 | 1% | 0% |
| 5 |  Leeds United | 5 | 9 | +4 | 0% | 1% |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 5 | 9 | +3 | 2% | 0% |
| 7 |  Everton | 5 | 9 | +3 | 0% | 2% |
| 8 |  Hull Citypromoted | 5 | 8 | +2 | 0% | 18% |
| 9 |  Newcastle United | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| 10 |  Chelsea | 5 | 7 | -2 | 0% | 2% |
| 11 |  Ipswich Townpromoted | 5 | 6 | -4 | 0% | 56% |
| 12 |  Manchester United | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| 13 |  Nottingham Forest | 5 | 5 | -1 | 0% | 7% |
| 14 |  Sunderland | 5 | 4 | -4 | 0% | 23% |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 5 | 4 | -5 | 0% | 26% |
| 16 |  Aston Villa | 5 | 4 | -5 | 0% | 7% |
| 17 |  AFC Bournemouth | 5 | 3 | -2 | 0% | 3% |
| 18 |  Coventry Citypromoted | 5 | 3 | -9 | 0% | 86% |
| 19 |  Fulham | 5 | 2 | -3 | 0% | 22% |
| 20 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 2 | -6 | 0% | 45% |