Modelling · England
Premier League
The teams
On the left, what happened; on the right, what the model makes of it. Goals per match are observed averages; attack and defence are estimates, adjusted for the quality of the opponents faced.
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | GF | GA | GF/m | GA/m | Attack | Defence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 5 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 2.60 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 0.83 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 5 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 1.36 | 0.68 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 10 | 16 | 5 | 3.20 | 1.00 | 1.37 | 1.02 |
| 4 |  Brentford | 5 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 1.24 | 1.05 |
| 5 |  Leeds United | 5 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.05 | 0.98 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 1.33 | 1.02 |
| 7 |  Everton | 5 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1.20 | 0.60 | 0.95 | 0.98 |
| 8 |  Hull Citypromoted | 5 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 0.83 | 0.99 |
| 9 |  Newcastle United | 5 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.26 | 1.23 |
| 10 |  Chelsea | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 2.00 | 2.40 | 1.27 | 1.26 |
| 11 |  Ipswich Townpromoted | 5 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 1.40 | 2.20 | 0.96 | 1.65 |
| 12 |  Manchester United | 5 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.31 | 1.10 |
| 13 |  Nottingham Forest | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.03 |
| 14 |  Sunderland | 5 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 0.95 | 1.16 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 5 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 1.20 | 2.20 | 0.96 | 1.26 |
| 16 |  Aston Villa | 5 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0.80 | 1.80 | 1.15 | 1.16 |
| 17 |  AFC Bournemouth | 5 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 1.16 | 1.09 |
| 18 |  Coventry Citypromoted | 5 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0.20 | 2.00 | 0.47 | 1.45 |
| 19 |  Fulham | 5 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 0.94 | 1.10 |
| 20 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0.40 | 1.60 | 0.92 | 1.28 |
A promoted side that has played three matches does not carry three matches of information: its estimate is shrunk towards the average level of a promoted side, measured over 97 promotions observed since 2019.