Analysis
What the figures say, explained
Short pieces, built on the same computations as the tables on this site. The figures in them are never copied out: they update with the model.
MethodIs PSG the Champions League favourite? Our two models rank it 1st and 10th
Our two models each replayed the 2026-2027 Champions League 50,000 times from the same 18 matches already played, and their rankings correlate at 0.944. On PSG, one gives a 24.5% title chance, the other 2.2%. The whole gap comes down to one question of method: should a squad be judged by its league's average?
FixturePremier LeagueJoão Pedro: one certain fixture, and a date that can slip
The injury feed declares a return on 17 October, the very day of Everton – Chelsea. The absence therefore covers only one fixture for certain, where it costs 1.72 points of win probability. If the date slips, it is a different fixture, and a different figure.
Power rankingLigue 1Marseille 17th and fifth: what the twelve clubs in this position went on to do
Twelve places separate Olympique de Marseille's position in the table from their estimated strength — the largest gap across the six leagues we follow. We replayed matchday 5 of 33 seasons to see where clubs in this situation end up.
SurvivalLigue 1Le Mans: in fourteen days, the model changed its mind
The promoted side's survival probability went from 43.6% to 68.9% in two weeks. Across 149 promotions recorded since 2020, that kind of swing is rare — and the numbers say exactly where it comes from.
Title raceBundesligaWho will win the Bundesliga in 2026-27?
Bayern are champions in 86% of simulated seasons, the highest title probability in Europe. Their attacking index is the strongest of our six leagues — and it is the attack, not the defence, that closes this league.
Title raceLa LigaWho will win La Liga in 2026-27?
Barcelona win the title in 84% of simulated seasons with Europe's second-best attack. Real Madrid finish second in 62% of them — and the model explains why six points in September weigh so heavily in Spain.
Title raceLigue 1Who will win Ligue 1 in 2026-27?
PSG sit tenth in the table and win the title in 63% of simulated seasons. Monaco lead the table and win it in 16%. Here is why, and what 50,000 simulations say about every place in the league.
Title raceWho will win the Champions League in 2026-27?
Arsenal lift the trophy in 25% of simulations, ahead of Manchester City and Bayern. Real Madrid fall to 4%, PSG to 2.2%. Here is the full simulation of the 144-match league phase and the knockout bracket.
Title racePremier LeagueWho will win the Premier League in 2026-27?
Manchester City and Arsenal are level on points and share 93% of the title. The model separates them on one detail — and England's best defence is not the one you would guess.
Title racePrimeira LigaWho will win the Primeira Liga in 2026-27?
Benfica 41.8%, Porto 41.2%. Six tenths of a point separate the two favourites — the tightest race of our six leagues. And the club with Portugal's best attack is neither of them.
Title raceSerie AWho will win Serie A in 2026-27?
Inter win the Scudetto in 57% of simulated seasons without leading the table. And the model rates Como Italy's third-strongest side — ahead of Juventus, Napoli and Milan combined.
MethodPrimeira LigaDid Porto sell Rodrigo Mora too cheaply?
Twenty-five million euros for a nineteen-year-old raised at the club, the thirty-eighth best passer in our database out of two and a half thousand. Our model says sixty. Here is where the gap comes from.
FixtureLigue 1What Hakimi's absence actually costs PSG
Two and a half points of win probability at the Vélodrome. Four Paris players would cost more. And for once, our two models disagree about this match.
FixturePremier LeagueFoden is suspended, and City have never looked stronger
Sent off in the derby, the Englishman misses Sunderland's visit. Our model gives Manchester City 71% without him — and has them going backwards if he came in. This is not a charge against Foden; it is a survey of the area he used to own.
FixturePrimeira LigaPorto face the Clássico without Froholdt, and miss Rodrigo Mora far more
The Dane's absence costs less than a point at the Dragão. The player Porto sold to Roma this summer would be worth four in the same part of the pitch.
TitlePremier LeagueArsenal are not playing this derby. They stand to gain or lose nine points of probability.
Six days ago the English title was a coin flip. One win at Sunderland later, Arsenal lead by seventeen points of probability — nine of which rest on a match Manchester City have yet to play. It kicks off this afternoon at Old Trafford.
MethodWhoever created more clear chances won all six matches. That proves almost nothing.
Six Champions League fixtures last night, and a perfect record on one statistic — while possession says nothing at all. What the match data shows, and what it cannot show.
TitleLigue 1PSG are thirteenth. The model still makes them champions.
Two points from nine, and yet the highest title probability in the league. This is not a bug: it is what happens when three matchdays meet seven seasons of data.
Power rankingLigue 1The table lies: who is undervalued in Ligue 1
Lens are eleventh and second. Marseille tenth and third. Three matchdays are enough to open gaps the points column does not show.
TitleBundesligaBayern are sixth, and champions in 85% of seasons
It is the widest gap across the six leagues we cover: two matchdays adrift in the table, and the highest title probability in Europe.
TitlePrimeira LigaIn Portugal, three clubs and one point between them
Sporting, Porto, Benfica: the tightest of the six leagues we cover. Two of them are within two percentage points of each other.