Le Mans: in fourteen days, the model changed its mind
The promoted side's survival probability went from 43.6% to 68.9% in two weeks. Across 149 promotions recorded since 2020, that kind of swing is rare — and the numbers say exactly where it comes from.
By Lucas da Silva · September 21, 2026 · 7 min read
There are two ways to look at Le Mans's start to the season. The first is the table: the promoted side sit 9th on 6 points, which is respectable without being remarkable.
The second is what the model made of it. And there, something happened.
Over the same period the projected points total rises from 29.0 to 33.8 — almost five points gained without playing for them.
What the model thought of Le Mans before a ball was kicked
Nothing personal: it did not know them. A promoted club arrives with no top-flight history, and a model with nothing to measure falls back on what it has already seen.
Across 149 promotions recorded in ten European leagues since 2020, here is what becomes of them.
The relegation rate covers the 123 promotions whose following season has already been played; the other two figures cover all 149.
And Ligue 1 is no exception. Of the fifteen promoted clubs the league has seen since 2020, four of the twelve whose following season has been played went straight back down, the average settles at 34.9 points and the average finish at 14.5th. Only two reached the top half: Lens, seventh with 57 points, and Lorient, ninth with 41.
Five matchdays, and a model backing down
Here is what the model published, day by day, on Le Mans's probability of avoiding the two automatic relegation places.
Two dates matter, and both are results.
| Matchday | Date | Opponent | Score | Opponent strength | Survival after | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 Aug | home |  Brest | 2-2 | 12th/18 | — |
| 2 | 30 Aug | away |  Rennes | 2-3 | 7th/18 | — |
| 3 | 5 Sep | away |  Nice | 1-1 | 10th/18 | 43.6% |
| 4 | 13 Sep | home |  Lens | 2-2 | 4th/18 | 52.9% |
| 5 | 19 Sep | home |  Lorient | 2-1 | 14th/18 | 68.9% |
The draw against Lens is worth far more than one point in the table. The model rates Lens the 4th-strongest side in the league — a better attack than Marseille, a better defence than Lyon. Holding that side at home moves an estimate; beating a direct rival moves it again.
What the numbers say, and what the model still dares believe
This is the most interesting part of the analysis.
Le Mans have scored 9 goals in 5 matches, or 1.80 per game. The Ligue 1 average this season is 1.42 . So the club produces 27% more than an average side in the league — where a typical promoted club, in the recorded history, scores 1.20 goals per game.
And yet the attacking index the model grants them is 0.99 , while the league median sits at 1.11.
The weakness, named plainly
The same rigour requires stating the other half. Le Mans concede 1.80 goals per match, and their defensive index of 1.49 is the highest in Ligue 1 — so the worst of the eighteen. A typical promoted side concedes 1.54 goals per game: Le Mans are above that.
 Le Mans | 1.49 |
 Troyes | 1.43 |
 Le Havre | 1.23 |
 Angers SCO | 1.23 |
That is where the season will be decided. A midtable attack paired with the leakiest defence in the league produces exactly what the results show: open matches, a lot of points dropped, and a position that stays fragile despite a good start.
Where the season ends, across 50,000 simulations
Seventeenth is the most frequent, at 16.6% — but the spread is what matters: the club finishes between 10th and 15th one time in two, and in the top half in 3.7% of runs.
Placed back in the league, that gives the full map of all eighteen clubs.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
Paris Saint Germain70187
Monaco1429201396
Olympique Lyonnais5141716141186
LOSC Lille5151716141186Rennes91213141211965
Olympique Marseille81011121211975Lens710111312111075
Paris681011111110865
Strasbourg671011121211865Nice68101212111086
Toulouse57911121211975Brest68101212121096
Auxerre681011111211107Lorient579111212111085Angers SCO57101214161611Le Mans691114161715Le Havre571013162021Troyes79142138The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
One figure for scale: Le Mans's projection of 33.8 points now sits one point off the historical average for promoted Ligue 1 clubs (34.9). Two weeks ago it was six points below it.
For comparison, the season's other promoted club, Troyes, projects 30.0 points with 44.1% survival — roughly where Le Mans stood on 7 September.
What this reading does not say
The model reads neither line-ups, nor injuries, nor transfers. It only learns about a changed squad through results, weeks later. Across a season that caution is a virtue; on a single fixture it is a limit.
And this is not a prediction. 68.9% survival means Le Mans still go down in nearly one scenario in three. The probabilities reproduced here are the figures actually published on each date, not a reconstruction — and the series begins on 7 September, the date of the first published calculation this season. The first two matchdays are therefore not covered: the historical average for promoted clubs serves as the starting point.
The same calculation runs every night on six major leagues. Read next: who will win Ligue 1.
Frequently asked questions
Will Le Mans stay up in Ligue 1?
The model gives Le Mans a 68.9% chance of avoiding the two automatic relegation places, as of 21 September 2026. Two weeks earlier that probability was 43.6%. So the club stays up in a little over two scenarios out of three — not in all of them.
How many promoted clubs survive in Ligue 1?
Of the fifteen promoted clubs Ligue 1 has seen since 2020, four of the twelve whose following season has already been played went straight back down — a third of them. They finish 14.5th on average with 34.9 points. Two reached the top half: Lens, seventh with 57 points, and Lorient, ninth with 41.
Why does the model not believe a promoted club straight away?
Because a promoted club arrives with no top-flight history. When the model has only a handful of fixtures, it shrinks the estimate towards the average level of a promoted side rather than trusting a tiny sample. That caution is measured on 149 promotions observed across ten leagues since 2020, the same sample as the one on our methodology page.
What is Le Mans's weakness this season?
The defence. With an index of 1.49 it is the leakiest of the eighteen Ligue 1 clubs. Le Mans concede 1.80 goals per match, where a typical promoted side concedes 1.54 and the league average is 1.42.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from 2,268 Ligue 1 fixtures, weighting recent ones more heavily. The remaining matchdays are then replayed 50,000 times, goal by goal, and we count how often each club finishes in each position.
See the table and projections for Ligue 1 →
The figures in this piece are read from the latest published computation: they update with the model and may therefore differ from those of the publication date. That is deliberate — an article should not go on asserting what is no longer true.
