Modelling · France
Ligue 1
Latest analysis
Power rankingLigue 1Marseille 17th and fifth: what the twelve clubs in this position went on to do
Twelve places separate Olympique de Marseille's position in the table from their estimated strength — the largest gap across the six leagues we follow. We replayed matchday 5 of 33 seasons to see where clubs in this situation end up.
SurvivalLigue 1Le Mans: in fourteen days, the model changed its mind
The promoted side's survival probability went from 43.6% to 68.9% in two weeks. Across 149 promotions recorded since 2020, that kind of swing is rare — and the numbers say exactly where it comes from.
Title raceLigue 1Who will win Ligue 1 in 2026-27?
PSG sit tenth in the table and win the title in 63% of simulated seasons. Monaco lead the table and win it in 16%. Here is why, and what 50,000 simulations say about every place in the league.
FixtureLigue 1What Hakimi's absence actually costs PSG
Two and a half points of win probability at the Vélodrome. Four Paris players would cost more. And for once, our two models disagree about this match.
Table and projections
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 5 | 13 | +5 | 14% | 0% |
| 2 |  Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 11 | +8 | 5% | 0% |
| 3 |  Paris | 5 | 11 | +5 | 1% | 0% |
| 4 |  LOSC Lille | 5 | 10 | +4 | 5% | 0% |
| 5 |  Rennes | 5 | 10 | -1 | 3% | 0% |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 8 | +1 | 70% | 0% |
| 7 |  Angers SCO | 5 | 7 | +1 | 0% | 27% |
| 8 |  Strasbourg | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| 9 |  Le Manspromoted | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 32% |
| 10 |  Auxerre | 5 | 6 | -5 | 0% | 12% |
| 11 |  Brest | 5 | 5 | -1 | 0% | 6% |
| 12 |  Lorient | 5 | 5 | -1 | 0% | 13% |
| 13 |  Toulouse | 5 | 5 | -2 | 0% | 4% |
| 14 |  Nice | 5 | 5 | -3 | 0% | 3% |
| 15 |  Lens | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1% | 0% |
| 16 |  Troyespromoted | 5 | 4 | -7 | 0% | 60% |
| 17 |  Olympique Marseille | 5 | 3 | -1 | 1% | 0% |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 5 | 2 | -3 | 0% | 41% |