Modelling · France
Ligue 1
The teams
On the left, what happened; on the right, what the model makes of it. Goals per match are observed averages; attack and defence are estimates, adjusted for the quality of the opponents faced.
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | GF | GA | GF/m | GA/m | Attack | Defence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 5 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1.60 | 0.60 | 1.42 | 1.07 |
| 2 |  Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 2.00 | 0.40 | 1.34 | 1.04 |
| 3 |  Paris | 5 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1.60 | 0.60 | 1.11 | 1.05 |
| 4 |  LOSC Lille | 5 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 1.18 | 0.86 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 5 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 1.60 | 1.80 | 1.30 | 1.09 |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.78 | 0.82 |
| 7 |  Angers SCO | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 0.77 | 1.21 |
| 8 |  Strasbourg | 5 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.21 | 1.13 |
| 9 |  Le Manspromoted | 5 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 0.99 | 1.49 |
| 10 |  Auxerre | 5 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 1.40 | 2.40 | 0.93 | 1.18 |
| 11 |  Brest | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 1.08 | 1.22 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.02 | 1.25 |
| 13 |  Toulouse | 5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.05 | 1.13 |
| 14 |  Nice | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 1.02 | 1.05 |
| 15 |  Lens | 5 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.25 | 0.93 |
| 16 |  Troyespromoted | 5 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0.80 | 2.20 | 0.85 | 1.43 |
| 17 |  Olympique Marseille | 5 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 1.37 | 1.03 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 5 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 0.84 | 1.21 |
A promoted side that has played three matches does not carry three matches of information: its estimate is shrunk towards the average level of a promoted side, measured over 97 promotions observed since 2019.