Modelling · France
Ligue 1
Table and projections
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | Projected points | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 5 | 13 | +5 | 14% | 62.353–71 | 0% |
| 2 |  Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 11 | +8 | 5% | 57.649–67 | 0% |
| 3 |  Paris | 5 | 11 | +5 | 1% | 50.841–61 | 0% |
| 4 |  LOSC Lille | 5 | 10 | +4 | 5% | 57.748–67 | 0% |
| 5 |  Rennes | 5 | 10 | -1 | 3% | 55.146–65 | 0% |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 8 | +1 | 70% | 70.862–79 | 0% |
| 7 |  Angers SCO | 5 | 7 | +1 | 0% | 34.626–43 | 27% |
| 8 |  Strasbourg | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 48.539–58 | 1% |
| 9 |  Le Manspromoted | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 33.925–43 | 32% |
| 10 |  Auxerre | 5 | 6 | -5 | 0% | 39.130–48 | 12% |
| 11 |  Brest | 5 | 5 | -1 | 0% | 41.232–50 | 6% |
| 12 |  Lorient | 5 | 5 | -1 | 0% | 38.429–48 | 13% |
| 13 |  Toulouse | 5 | 5 | -2 | 0% | 42.534–52 | 4% |
| 14 |  Nice | 5 | 5 | -3 | 0% | 43.534–53 | 3% |
| 15 |  Lens | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1% | 51.743–61 | 0% |
| 16 |  Troyespromoted | 5 | 4 | -7 | 0% | 29.521–38 | 60% |
| 17 |  Olympique Marseille | 5 | 3 | -1 | 1% | 51.842–61 | 0% |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 5 | 2 | -3 | 0% | 32.024–41 | 41% |
50,000 simulated seasons from a Dixon-Coles model fitted on 2,333 matches, with a 730-day half-life — an effective sample of 1,589. The points interval covers 80% of simulated seasons.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
123456789101112131415161718Paris Saint Germain70187Monaco1429201396Olympique Lyonnais5141716141186LOSC Lille5151716141186Rennes91213141211965Olympique Marseille81011121211975Lens710111312111075Paris681011111110865Strasbourg671011121211865Nice68101212111086Toulouse57911121211975Brest68101212121096Auxerre681011111211107Lorient579111212111085Angers SCO57101214161611Le Mans691114161715Le Havre571013162021Troyes79142138
Paris Saint Germain70187Monaco1429201396Olympique Lyonnais5141716141186LOSC Lille5151716141186Rennes91213141211965Olympique Marseille81011121211975Lens710111312111075Paris681011111110865Strasbourg671011121211865Nice68101212111086Toulouse57911121211975Brest68101212121096Auxerre681011111211107Lorient579111212111085Angers SCO57101214161611Le Mans691114161715Le Havre571013162021Troyes79142138The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
Paris Saint Germain1.4eLOSC Lille4.7eMonaco3.3e