Modelling · France
Ligue 1
Analysis — Ligue 1
Short pieces built on the same computations as the tables. The figures in them are not copied out: they follow the model.
Power rankingLigue 1Marseille 17th and fifth: what the twelve clubs in this position went on to do
Twelve places separate Olympique de Marseille's position in the table from their estimated strength — the largest gap across the six leagues we follow. We replayed matchday 5 of 33 seasons to see where clubs in this situation end up.
SurvivalLigue 1Le Mans: in fourteen days, the model changed its mind
The promoted side's survival probability went from 43.6% to 68.9% in two weeks. Across 149 promotions recorded since 2020, that kind of swing is rare — and the numbers say exactly where it comes from.
Title raceLigue 1Who will win Ligue 1 in 2026-27?
PSG sit tenth in the table and win the title in 63% of simulated seasons. Monaco lead the table and win it in 16%. Here is why, and what 50,000 simulations say about every place in the league.
FixtureLigue 1What Hakimi's absence actually costs PSG
Two and a half points of win probability at the Vélodrome. Four Paris players would cost more. And for once, our two models disagree about this match.
TitleLigue 1PSG are thirteenth. The model still makes them champions.
Two points from nine, and yet the highest title probability in the league. This is not a bug: it is what happens when three matchdays meet seven seasons of data.
Power rankingLigue 1The table lies: who is undervalued in Ligue 1
Lens are eleventh and second. Marseille tenth and third. Three matchdays are enough to open gaps the points column does not show.