Glossary
The wordsof value betting34 terms
Each term in one or two sentences, with the Learning module that goes deeper.
- Account limiting
- Stake caps a bookmaker imposes on a customer who wins regularly. Learn more →
- American odds
- US format: +150 means 150 profit for a 100 stake (decimal 2.50); −200 means staking 200 to win 100 (decimal 1.50).
- Bankroll
- The money set aside for betting, separate from the rest of your finances. Stakes are calculated as a percentage of the bankroll. Learn more →
- Bookmaker
- The company that sets the odds and accepts bets. In each country, only licensed bookmakers are allowed.
- BTTS (both teams to score)
- A market on whether both teams score at least one goal each.
- Calibration
- The quality of a model whose probabilities come true at the right rate: of the outcomes it rates at 60%, about 60% happen. Learn more →
- Decimal odds
- What a 1-unit stake returns, stake included. Odds of 2.50 return 2.50 per unit staked if the bet wins. Learn more →
- Devig (margin removal)
- Removing a bookmaker’s margin from its odds to recover the probabilities it estimates. Several methods exist: proportional, power, Shin. Learn more →
- Dixon-Coles
- A statistical model of football scores published in 1997 by Mark Dixon and Stuart Coles: it estimates an attack and defence strength per team and corrects low scores.
- Double chance
- A bet covering two of a match’s three outcomes: home or draw (1X), draw or away (X2), home or away (12).
- Drawdown
- The fall in bankroll from a peak to the trough that follows. Even with an edge, long drawdowns are normal. Learn more →
- Edge
- The gap, in your favour, between an outcome’s real probability and the one implied by the odds. It is measured by expected value.
- Expected value (EV)
- The average profit per unit staked: probability × odds − 1. A positive EV signals a value bet. Learn more →
- Fair odds
- Margin-free odds that match a probability exactly: 1 / probability. At 40%, fair odds are 2.50.
- Favourite
- The outcome the market rates most likely, so the lowest priced. A favourite is not necessarily a good bet.
- Flat staking
- Staking the same amount, or the same percentage of bankroll, on every bet.
- Fractional odds
- UK format giving the profit for a stake: 3/2 means 3 profit for 2 staked, i.e. decimal odds of 2.50.
- Handicap
- A market in which goals are added to or taken from a team before the match, to balance the chances.
- Implied probability
- The probability contained in odds: 1 / odds. Odds of 2.50 imply 40%, margin included. Learn more →
- Kelly criterion
- A staking rule that maximises long-run growth: (probability × odds − 1) / (odds − 1) of the bankroll. A fraction is usually played, because it overstakes when the probability is overestimated. Learn more →
- Margin (overround)
- How far the implied probabilities add up beyond 100%. It is the bookmaker’s profit: at 2.50 / 3.40 / 3.00, the margin is 2.7%. Learn more →
- Market
- A type of bet on a match: result (1X2), number of goals, both teams to score, handicap…
- Outcome
- One possible result of a market: home win, draw, over 2.5 goals…
- Over / under
- A market on the total number of goals relative to a line: over 2.5 goals wins from 3 goals.
- Probability model
- A statistical method that estimates each outcome’s probability from data. Its accuracy determines the whole edge.
- ROI
- Return on investment. In sports betting it usually means yield (profit / stakes); some compute it on the starting bankroll.
- Sample size
- The number of bets results are judged on. The smaller it is, the more the observed yield depends on luck. Learn more →
- Streak
- A run of consecutive winning or losing bets. Long streaks are common through luck alone. Learn more →
- Track record
- The public history of every bet a service has published, with odds and results, losses included.
- Underdog
- The outcome rated least likely, so the highest priced. An underdog can be a value bet if its odds are too high.
- Unit
- The reference stake of a track record, often 1% of the bankroll. Expressing profit in units lets you compare bettors who stake different amounts.
- Value bet
- A bet whose odds pay more than the real risk: probability × odds > 1. It wins on average, not every time. Learn more →
- Variance
- How widely results spread around the average. It explains how a bettor with an edge can lose for hundreds of bets. Learn more →
- Yield
- Profit divided by total stakes. 100 one-unit bets returning 5 units of profit give a yield of +5%.
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