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Value betting,from zero to expertFree

18 modules across 3 levels, a quiz per level and tools to calculate everything yourself. Open to everyone, with or without an account, on the site as in the app.

Start LearningSee the syllabus
18modules to read
3levels, from beginner to advanced
10interactive tools
2 h 03of reading in total
The syllabus

Three levels,one step at a time18 modules

The Beginner level is open from the start. Each quiz you pass unlocks the next level.

Open from the start

Beginner

Understand odds, margin and value.

  • Odds and implied probability5 min
  • The bookmaker margin5 min
  • What is a value bet?5 min
  • Expected value (EV)6 min
  • Bankroll management basics5 min
  • Gambling responsibly4 min
Quiz: 10 questions, pass mark 8/10🏅 Beginner Value Bettor
After Beginner

Intermediate

Live with variance and size your stakes.

  • Probability and variance7 min
  • Streaks and drawdowns7 min
  • Sample size6 min
  • Removing the margin (devigging)7 min
  • The Kelly criterion8 min
  • The bettor’s cognitive biases6 min
Quiz: 8 questions, pass mark 7/8🏅 Seasoned Value Bettor
After Intermediate

Advanced

Robust Kelly, calibration and statistical tests.

  • Robust Kelly10 min
  • Kelly for simultaneous bets8 min
  • Advanced devig methods9 min
  • Model calibration9 min
  • Statistically testing your performance9 min
  • Operational reality7 min
Quiz: 10 questions, pass mark 8/10🏅 Expert Value Bettor
The quizzes

One quizper level80% to pass

  1. 1

    Read the level’s modulesThe quiz opens once they are all marked as read.

  2. 2

    Answer the questionsQuestions and options shuffled on every attempt, as many attempts as you like.

  3. 3

    Unlock what’s next80% correct answers: the next level opens and you earn your badge, with an explanation of every answer.

The tools

Calculateit all yourself10 tools

Inside the modules, calculators and simulations to play with — with the running example pre-filled.

Odds converterDecimal, fractional, American — and the implied probability.
Margin calculatorThe bookmaker margin and the payout rate, for 2 to 6 outcomes.
EV calculatorThe expected value of a bet, in % and in euros.
Variance by oddsWhy long odds make for a rollercoaster.
Bankroll simulatorHundreds of simulated seasons: flat stake, full Kelly, ½, ¼.
Sample sizeHow many bets it takes to prove an edge.
DeviggingRemoving the margin: multiplicative, additive, power, Shin, odds ratio.
Kelly calculatorThe optimal stake, the fraction and the growth curve.
Robust KellyWhat an overestimated probability costs you.
Calibration curveA calibrated model, an overconfident one, an underconfident one — Brier and log loss.
An extract

The heartof value bettingModule 4

Beginner · Expected value (EV) · 6 min

How much does a bet return, on average?

EV = p × odds − 1

Example — Team A vs Team B

Team A win at 2.50, estimated probability 45%.

EV = 0.45 × 2.50 − 1 = +0.125, i.e. +12.5%.

With an estimate of 40% (the market’s), the EV would be 0%.

StarttodayIt’s free

Learning is open to everyone, with or without an account, here on the site as in the app. Your progress is saved on your device, and in your account if you have one.

Start Learning
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