Modelling
Probabilities and simulations, league by league
For each league: the table, attack and defence strengths, the end-of-season simulation and the probabilities for every upcoming fixture. Recomputed as soon as a matchday has been played.
Worth reading now
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MethodIs PSG the Champions League favourite? Our two models rank it 1st and 10th
Our two models each replayed the 2026-2027 Champions League 50,000 times from the same 18 matches already played, and their rankings correlate at 0.944. On PSG, one gives a 24.5% title chance, the other 2.2%. The whole gap comes down to one question of method: should a squad be judged by its league's average?
FixturePremier LeagueJoão Pedro: one certain fixture, and a date that can slip
The injury feed declares a return on 17 October, the very day of Everton – Chelsea. The absence therefore covers only one fixture for certain, where it costs 1.72 points of win probability. If the date slips, it is a different fixture, and a different figure.
SurvivalLigue 1Le Mans: in fourteen days, the model changed its mind
The promoted side's survival probability went from 43.6% to 68.9% in two weeks. Across 149 promotions recorded since 2020, that kind of swing is rare — and the numbers say exactly where it comes from.
Title raceBundesligaWho will win the Bundesliga in 2026-27?
Bayern are champions in 86% of simulated seasons, the highest title probability in Europe. Their attacking index is the strongest of our six leagues — and it is the attack, not the defence, that closes this league.
The leagues
FranceLigue 1
Paris Saint Germain70.2%
EnglandPremier League
Manchester City58.3%
SpainLa Liga
FC Barcelona85.7%
ItalySerie A
Inter56.7%
PortugalPrimeira Liga
Porto47.7%
GermanyBundesliga
FC Bayern München87.0%European cups
The calendar and results of the two European competitions. Without probabilities, for want of a calibrated correction term between leagues — each page explains why.
