Sunday 22 November · 15:00 · 11th matchday
Paris – Angers SCO
Paris
4th · attack 1.16 · defence 1.07
Angers SCO
15th · attack 0.76 · defence 1.25
Our model makes Paris favourites for Paris – Angers SCO, at 60%. Kick-off 22 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Paris win 60% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Angers SCO win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.79 goals for Paris and 0.81 for Angers SCO, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.79 for Paris, 0.81 for Angers SCO.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Paris wins; above it, Angers SCO wins.
| Paris \ Angers SCO | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Paris goals in rows, Angers SCO goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Paris v Angers SCO?
Paris, at 60%. The full split is Paris 60%, draw 24%, Angers SCO 16%.
What is the most likely score in Paris v Angers SCO?
1–0, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paris v Angers SCO?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.79 for Paris and 0.81 for Angers SCO.
Will both teams score in Paris v Angers SCO?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Paris keep a clean sheet or Angers SCO fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
