Sunday 22 November · 17:15 · 11th matchday
Lorient – Rennes
Lorient
11th · attack 0.98 · defence 1.20
Rennes
5th · attack 1.34 · defence 1.12
Our model makes Rennes favourites for Lorient – Rennes, at 43%. Kick-off 22 November 2026, 17:15.
Across the full score distribution, Lorient win 32% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Rennes win 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.36 goals for Lorient and 1.61 for Rennes, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.36 for Lorient, 1.61 for Rennes.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lorient wins; above it, Rennes wins.
| Lorient \ Rennes | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Lorient goals in rows, Rennes goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lorient v Rennes?
Rennes, at 43%. The full split is Lorient 32%, draw 25%, Rennes 43%.
What is the most likely score in Lorient v Rennes?
1–1, which comes up in 11.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lorient v Rennes?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.36 for Lorient and 1.61 for Rennes.
Will both teams score in Lorient v Rennes?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Lorient keep a clean sheet or Rennes fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
