Lens 1-9 Como: a one-in-500,000 result, as unlikely as 19 heads in a row
Before kick-off, our model saw a tight game, with Como slightly ahead and 1-1 as the most likely score. The 1-9 that followed had roughly a one-in-500,000 chance of happening. What that number means, and why lopsided scores always catch models out.
By Lucas da Silva · 5 November 2026 · 5 min read · Models by Rondo Research
On Wednesday night, 
Como won 9-1 away at 
Lens. A result that will be remembered, and one nobody saw coming. Our model included.
Before the game: a tight contest
Dixon-Coles, calculated the day before, gave Como a 39.1% chance of winning, Lens 34% and the draw 26.9%. A balanced game, with a slight edge to the Italians, stronger at the back and a little sharper in attack.
| Como | 39.1% |
| Lens | 34.0% |
The model expected 1.24 goals from Como and 1.13 from Lens. There was a 57.7% chance of fewer than three goals, and the most likely score was 1-1, at 12.7%.
One in 500,000
From those expected goals, the probability of the exact 1-9 scoreline drops to about two in a million.
The neighbouring outcomes were barely more likely:
Never seen in our history
Our database holds 49,214 matches since April 2019, leagues and cups combined. None ended 1-9.
An away side scored nine or more only five times: Ajax at VVV-Venlo (0-13, October 2020), Getafe against amateur side Inter de Valdemoro in the Copa del Rey (0-11, October 2025), Leicester at Southampton (0-9, October 2019), Celtic at Dundee United (0-9, August 2022) and Twente at Excelsior (0-9, last weekend). None of them conceded.
What sets Lens v Como apart is the fixture itself: a Champions League game between two sides the model rated as close, not a giant against amateurs.
Why models get lopsided scores wrong
A goals model such as Dixon-Coles treats each goal almost as an independent draw, based on average attacking and defensive strength. That is a very good approximation for most games. But a match that tips over changes nature: the trailing side pushes forward, leaves space, and each goal brings the next. The end of the game looks nothing like the start.
The model does not see that mechanism, so it slightly underestimates very wide scores, and this 1-9 is the most spectacular proof yet. A one-in-500,000 chance is not zero, though: across the thousands of matches played every season, some score will always defy the numbers. You just never know which one.
Frequently asked questions
What were the chances of a 1-9 between Lens and Como?
About one in 500,000 before the game, based on the expected goals from the Dixon-Coles model calculated on 3 November 2026: 1.13 for Lens and 1.24 for Como. That is roughly the chance of flipping 19 heads in a row (one in 524,288).
Who were the favourites for Lens v Como?
Como, narrowly: a 39.1% chance of winning against 34% for Lens and 26.9% for the draw. The most likely score was 1-1, at 12.7%.
Has a score like 1-9 happened before?
Never in our database of 49,214 matches since April 2019. An away side scored nine or more only five times, each time without conceding.
The figures in this piece are read from the latest published computation: they update with the model and may therefore differ from those of the publication date. That is deliberate — an article should not go on asserting what is no longer true.
