Who will win the Bundesliga in 2026-27?
Bayern are champions in 86% of simulated seasons, the highest title probability in Europe. Their attacking index is the strongest of our six leagues — and it is the attack, not the defence, that closes this league.
By Lucas da Silva · September 20, 2026 · 6 min read
The Bundesliga produces Europe's highest title probability this season, and not because Bayern have started well. They are second.
An attack with no equivalent in Europe
 FC Bayern München | 2.24 |
 Borussia Dortmund | 1.50 |
 Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1.49 |
 Elversberg | 1.50 |
At 2.24, Bayern score more than double an average Bundesliga side against an average defence. It is the highest index of the six leagues we follow, ahead of Barcelona (2.11) and Sporting (2.07).
Their defence, at 0.87, is good without being remarkable: Dortmund do practically as well (0.86).
So it is entirely the attack that closes this league. A side scoring that much does not need to lock everything down: it wins matches a defence alone would not save.
Dortmund lead, and can do little about it
Dortmund have 12 points against Bayern's 10. They top the league. And their title probability is 11.4%.
The projection gap explains everything: 70.4 points against 81.2. Nearly eleven points across thirty remaining matchdays. A two-point lead today does not offset eleven points of level.
The final-position heat map
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
FC Bayern München8711Borussia Dortmund1158197Bayer 04 Leverkusen183420127
RB Leipzig616201612975
VfB Stuttgart1015171512975
SC Freiburg71214141311875Elversberg591010101088765
FSV Mainz 05581011111110976
Eintracht Frankfurt57911111110976
FC Augsburg67910101110976
TSG Hoffenheim579101111109865
Werder Bremen68911111110875
Schalke 0456788910101111
Paderborn566789111315
FC Köln57911121314129
Borussia Mönchengladbach568101213131312
FC Union Berlin681013151818
Hamburger SV56811141928The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
This is Europe's most contrasted map. Two very dark cells at the top — Bayern first at 86%, Dortmund second at 58% — and then a gradient that fades at once.
From third place onward, no cell exceeds 30%. From eighth, everything drops under 15%: eleven clubs share eleven places with no legible hierarchy.
Elversberg, the German season's anomaly
Eighth in the table, sixth-strongest in the model, and a profile it rarely sees:
- attack 1.50, level with Dortmund;
- defence 1.47, the worst in the league.
A club scoring like a title contender and conceding like a relegation candidate. The model gives them 46.3% of finishing in Europe and 1.7% of going down — a points range running from 38 to 63, the widest in the Bundesliga. No German side is harder to place.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
Borussia Dortmund2.4eFC Bayern München1.1eElversberg7.5eThe European race, the real league
| Club | Top 4 | Europe | Strength rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 99.9% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 95.5% | 99.3% | 2 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 67.2% | 88.6% | 3 |
| RB Leipzig | 47.2% | 75.0% | 4 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 25.9% | 57.6% | 5 |
| SC Freiburg | 20.1% | 49.0% | 7 |
Two places are taken, the third leans clearly towards Leverkusen, and the fourth is contested by Leipzig, Stuttgart, Freiburg and Elversberg. Stuttgart are fourteenth on 3 points and fifth-strongest: they have the most to recover, and the most room to do it.
At the bottom, a league with two direct drops
The Bundesliga relegates only two clubs directly, with sixteenth going to a play-off. The model puts Paderborn at the head of the field (48.5%), ahead of Union Berlin (32.5%), Hamburg (30.4%) and Köln (26.2%).
Paderborn have the zone's clearest profile: an attacking index of 0.52, by far the lowest in the league. Their defence holds up (1.03, around average) — but a side scoring half as much as everyone else almost never wins.
The limits
The model reads neither line-ups, nor injuries, nor transfers. It refuses to overreact to four matchdays, which is exactly what is asked of it in September. And 86% remains a probability: Bayern fail in one simulated season out of seven.
The same calculation runs every night on six major leagues. Read next: who will win La Liga, who will win Serie A, who will win Ligue 1 and who will win the Champions League.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Bundesliga in 2026-27?
Bayern Munich are champions in 86.2% of the 50,000 simulated seasons run on 20 September 2026. That is the highest title probability across our six leagues. Dortmund follow on 11.4% and Leverkusen on 1.4%.
Why is Bayern so dominant in the model?
Because of their attack. Their index of 2.24 is the highest of our six leagues: they score more than double an average Bundesliga side. Their defence, at 0.87, is good without being exceptional — the attack is what opens the gap.
Can Dortmund win the title?
In 11.4% of simulations. Dortmund top the table on 12 points and are the league's second-strongest side, but they project 70.4 points against Bayern's 81.2: nearly eleven points across thirty matchdays.
Which clubs will be relegated from the Bundesliga?
Paderborn go down in 48.5% of simulations, Union Berlin in 32.5%, Hamburg in 30.4% and Köln in 26.2%. The Bundesliga relegates only two clubs directly, with sixteenth place going to a play-off.
Does the September table change the projection?
Very little. After four matchdays Bayern are second and Dortmund first; the model still gives Bayern 86%. Four matchdays are only 12% of a season, and measured strength weighs far more than points already banked.
See the table and projections for Bundesliga →
The figures in this piece are read from the latest published computation: they update with the model and may therefore differ from those of the publication date. That is deliberate — an article should not go on asserting what is no longer true.
