Who will win Serie A in 2026-27?
Inter win the Scudetto in 57% of simulated seasons without leading the table. And the model rates Como Italy's third-strongest side — ahead of Juventus, Napoli and Milan combined.
By Lucas da Silva · September 20, 2026 · 7 min read
Serie A produces this season's two most unexpected results across our six leagues. The first is that the leader is not the favourite. The second fits in one word: Como.
Thirteen points each, thirty-three points apart
Roma are first and Inter second, split by goal difference. The model separates them comfortably.
 Inter | 56.9% |
 Roma | 23.9% |
 Como | 12.2% |
 Juventus | 2.3% |
The explanation is at the attacking end. Inter post an index of 1.99 — they score practically double an average Serie A side — against 1.53 for Roma.
Roma defend better (0.77 against 0.93), and that is what keeps them at 23.9%. But across a full season an attack of that calibre pays more than a defence of that calibre: five projected points, 82.4 against 77.0.
Como, Italy's third-strongest side
This is the figure that will raise eyebrows, so it is worth setting out.
Como are fifth on 10 points. The model rates them third-strongest, on two measures:
- an attack of 1.47, third in Italy behind Inter and Roma;
- a defence of 0.84, joint second in Italy with Juventus, behind Roma alone.
A club that scores a lot and concedes little is strong, whatever its budget. The model reads neither wage bills, nor honours, nor reputation: it reads goals scored and goals conceded, weighted by the quality of the opposition. On that ground, Como are above Juventus.
The final-position heat map
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
Inter572610Roma27341796Como6132017141085Juventus9161715131075
AC Milan51114151413107
Napoli8121415151395
Atalanta69111414141175
Lazio57101214141396
Frosinone578889998755
Cagliari58111414121075
Sassuolo58111213111086
Bologna71113131211975
Fiorentina6911121211986
Udinese579111212111075
Torino579111213121186
Parma57912141514115
Genoa57912141414125
Lecce5710131618177
Monza6914202716
Venezia581864The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Three observations.
The summit holds three, not two. Inter first at 57%, Roma second at 32%, Como third at 23%. Those three rows are markedly more concentrated than the rest of the map.
The midsection is enormous. From fourth to thirteenth, ten clubs contest ten places with no cell above 16%. Juventus, Napoli, Atalanta and Milan are separated by under two projected points: the model treats them as equivalent.
Venezia are already gone. Bottom in 64% of runs, relegated in 91%: no club across our six leagues is in worse shape.
Lazio and Cagliari, two table mirages
Lazio are third on 13 points, and the model rates them eighth. Cagliari are fourth on 12 points, and the model rates them fourteenth.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
Roma2.5eComo4.5eCagliari10.9eInter1.6eCagliari are the textbook case: twelve points taken with an attacking index of 0.94 and a defence of 1.10, both below average. The model gives them 8.9% of finishing in Europe and projects them tenth. A good start does not become a level.
At the bottom, four clubs for three places
| Club | Relegation probability | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia | 91.0% | 0.79 | 1.63 |
| Monza | 60.2% | 0.96 | 1.59 |
| Parma | 41.6% | 0.72 | 1.06 |
| Lecce | 34.7% | 0.72 | 1.19 |
Venezia and Monza share a profile: a catastrophic defence, around 1.60. Parma and Lecce have the opposite problem — their defence roughly holds, but with a 0.72 attacking index they score a third less than an average side.
What this projection cannot do
It reads neither line-ups, nor injuries, nor the January window. It learns from results, weeks late.
It gives a probability. Inter at 57% fail in more than four simulated seasons out of ten.
And on a club like Como, it measures what has happened — not what a squad is reputed to be worth. That is its strength and its limit in the same sentence.
The same calculation runs every night on six major leagues. Read next: who will win Ligue 1, who will win the Premier League, who will win the Primeira Liga and who will win the Champions League.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Serie A in 2026-27?
Inter are champions in 56.9% of the 50,000 simulated seasons run on 20 September 2026. Roma follow on 23.9% and Como on 12.2%. Juventus, Napoli, Atalanta and Milan are all below 3%.
Why are Inter favourites when Roma are top?
Both clubs have 13 points, Roma ahead on goal difference. But Inter's attacking index is 1.99 against Roma's 1.53: roughly 30% more attacking output, worth five projected points across the season.
Can Como really win the Scudetto?
The model gives them 12.2%, which is more than Juventus, Napoli, Atalanta and Milan combined. Como are the league's third-strongest side, with a 1.47 attack and a 0.84 defence, the joint second-best in Italy. It is the most unexpected result across our six leagues.
Which clubs will be relegated from Serie A?
Venezia go down in 91.0% of simulations, Monza in 60.2%, Parma in 41.6% and Lecce in 34.7%. Venezia have taken no points in five matchdays and have the worst defence in the league.
How do you read the final-position heat map?
Each row is a club, each column a finishing place, and the darkness of a cell gives the probability of ending there. A concentrated row marks a club whose fate is predictable; a spread row, a club with everything still to play for.
See the table and projections for Serie A →
The figures in this piece are read from the latest published computation: they update with the model and may therefore differ from those of the publication date. That is deliberate — an article should not go on asserting what is no longer true.
