Modelling · Germany
Bundesliga
Latest analysis
Title raceBundesligaWho will win the Bundesliga in 2026-27?
Bayern are champions in 86% of simulated seasons, the highest title probability in Europe. Their attacking index is the strongest of our six leagues — and it is the attack, not the defence, that closes this league.
TitleBundesligaBayern are sixth, and champions in 85% of seasons
It is the widest gap across the six leagues we cover: two matchdays adrift in the table, and the highest title probability in Europe.
Table and projections
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 12 | +7 | 11% | 0% |
| 2 |  FC Bayern München | 4 | 10 | +12 | 87% | 0% |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 10 | +9 | 0% | 0% |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 7 | +5 | 0% | 5% |
| 5 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 7 | +5 | 2% | 0% |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 7 | +4 | 0% | 1% |
| 7 |  Elversbergpromoted | 4 | 7 | +1 | 0% | 2% |
| 8 |  Werder Bremen | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 8% |
| 9 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 6 | +4 | 0% | 0% |
| 10 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 5 | -1 | 0% | 2% |
| 11 |  Schalke 04promoted | 4 | 5 | -1 | 0% | 22% |
| 12 |  Paderbornpromoted | 4 | 4 | -2 | 0% | 28% |
| 13 |  FC Köln | 4 | 4 | -3 | 0% | 21% |
| 14 |  TSG Hoffenheim | 4 | 3 | -3 | 0% | 4% |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 3 | -3 | 0% | 0% |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 3 | -11 | 0% | 46% |
| 17 |  FC Union Berlin | 4 | 1 | -13 | 0% | 36% |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | -10 | 0% | 24% |