Modelling · Germany
Bundesliga
Table and projections
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | Projected points | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 12 | +7 | 11% | 69.660–79 | 0% |
| 2 |  FC Bayern München | 4 | 10 | +12 | 87% | 80.973–89 | 0% |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 10 | +9 | 0% | 51.442–61 | 0% |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 7 | +5 | 0% | 42.833–53 | 5% |
| 5 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 7 | +5 | 2% | 61.652–71 | 0% |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 7 | +4 | 0% | 46.737–56 | 1% |
| 7 |  Elversbergpromoted | 4 | 7 | +1 | 0% | 48.437–60 | 2% |
| 8 |  Werder Bremen | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 40.431–50 | 8% |
| 9 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 6 | +4 | 0% | 55.846–66 | 0% |
| 10 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 5 | -1 | 0% | 46.637–56 | 2% |
| 11 |  Schalke 04promoted | 4 | 5 | -1 | 0% | 37.025–49 | 22% |
| 12 |  Paderbornpromoted | 4 | 4 | -2 | 0% | 36.124–50 | 28% |
| 13 |  FC Köln | 4 | 4 | -3 | 0% | 35.527–45 | 21% |
| 14 |  TSG Hoffenheim | 4 | 3 | -3 | 0% | 42.733–52 | 4% |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 3 | -3 | 0% | 53.344–63 | 0% |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 3 | -11 | 0% | 31.121–41 | 46% |
| 17 |  FC Union Berlin | 4 | 1 | -13 | 0% | 32.824–42 | 36% |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | -10 | 0% | 35.226–45 | 24% |
50,000 simulated seasons from a Dixon-Coles model fitted on 2,139 matches, with a 365-day half-life — an effective sample of 866. The points interval covers 80% of simulated seasons.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
123456789101112131415161718FC Bayern München8711Borussia Dortmund1158197Bayer 04 Leverkusen183420127RB Leipzig616201612975VfB Stuttgart1015171512975SC Freiburg71214141311875Elversberg591010101088765FSV Mainz 05581011111110976Eintracht Frankfurt57911111110976FC Augsburg67910101110976TSG Hoffenheim579101111109865Werder Bremen68911111110875Schalke 0456788910101111Paderborn566789111315FC Köln57911121314129Borussia Mönchengladbach568101213131312FC Union Berlin681013151818Hamburger SV56811141928
FC Bayern München8711Borussia Dortmund1158197Bayer 04 Leverkusen183420127RB Leipzig616201612975VfB Stuttgart1015171512975SC Freiburg71214141311875Elversberg591010101088765FSV Mainz 05581011111110976Eintracht Frankfurt57911111110976FC Augsburg67910101110976TSG Hoffenheim579101111109865Werder Bremen68911111110875Schalke 0456788910101111Paderborn566789111315FC Köln57911121314129Borussia Mönchengladbach568101213131312FC Union Berlin681013151818Hamburger SV56811141928The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
Borussia Dortmund2.4eFC Bayern München1.1eBayer 04 Leverkusen3.6e