Modelling · Germany
Bundesliga
The teams
On the left, what happened; on the right, what the model makes of it. Goals per match are observed averages; attack and defence are estimates, adjusted for the quality of the opponents faced.
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | GF | GA | GF/m | GA/m | Attack | Defence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 2.25 | 0.50 | 1.48 | 0.89 |
| 2 |  FC Bayern München | 4 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 3.50 | 0.50 | 2.22 | 0.87 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 3.00 | 0.75 | 1.14 | 1.19 |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 2.75 | 1.50 | 0.99 | 1.27 |
| 5 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 2.50 | 1.25 | 1.48 | 0.99 |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 1.06 | 1.13 |
| 7 |  Elversbergpromoted | 4 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.27 | 1.31 |
| 8 |  Werder Bremen | 4 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.95 | 1.31 |
| 9 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 2.25 | 1.25 | 1.34 | 1.05 |
| 10 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 1.28 | 1.34 |
| 11 |  Schalke 04promoted | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.13 |
| 12 |  Paderbornpromoted | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.72 | 1.01 |
| 13 |  FC Köln | 4 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 1.50 | 2.25 | 0.96 | 1.41 |
| 14 |  TSG Hoffenheim | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1.75 | 2.50 | 1.24 | 1.38 |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1.50 | 2.25 | 1.39 | 1.14 |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0.50 | 3.25 | 0.82 | 1.37 |
| 17 |  FC Union Berlin | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 1.00 | 4.25 | 0.87 | 1.34 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 1.50 | 4.00 | 1.04 | 1.39 |
A promoted side that has played three matches does not carry three matches of information: its estimate is shrunk towards the average level of a promoted side, measured over 97 promotions observed since 2019.