Saturday 28 November · 15:30 · 11th matchday
FSV Mainz 05 – FC Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
12th · attack 1.08 · defence 1.19
FC Union Berlin
16th · attack 0.83 · defence 1.26
Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 favourites for FSV Mainz 05 – FC Union Berlin, at 54%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, FSV Mainz 05 win 54% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and FC Union Berlin win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.74 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.99 for FC Union Berlin, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.74 for FSV Mainz 05, 0.99 for FC Union Berlin.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FSV Mainz 05 wins; above it, FC Union Berlin wins.
| FSV Mainz 05 \ FC Union Berlin | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
FSV Mainz 05 goals in rows, FC Union Berlin goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FSV Mainz 05 v FC Union Berlin?
FSV Mainz 05, at 54%. The full split is FSV Mainz 05 54%, draw 25%, FC Union Berlin 20%.
What is the most likely score in FSV Mainz 05 v FC Union Berlin?
1–1, which comes up in 12.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FSV Mainz 05 v FC Union Berlin?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.74 for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.99 for FC Union Berlin.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 v FC Union Berlin?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet or FC Union Berlin fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
