Sunday 22 November · 15:30 · 10th matchday
FC Augsburg – FSV Mainz 05
FC Augsburg
10th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.28
FSV Mainz 05
9th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.20
Our model makes FC Augsburg favourites for FC Augsburg – FSV Mainz 05, at 41%. Kick-off 22 November 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, FC Augsburg win 41% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and FSV Mainz 05 win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.56 goals for FC Augsburg and 1.39 for FSV Mainz 05, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.56 for FC Augsburg, 1.39 for FSV Mainz 05.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Augsburg wins; above it, FSV Mainz 05 wins.
| FC Augsburg \ FSV Mainz 05 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
FC Augsburg goals in rows, FSV Mainz 05 goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Augsburg v FSV Mainz 05?
FC Augsburg, at 41%. The full split is FC Augsburg 41%, draw 26%, FSV Mainz 05 33%.
What is the most likely score in FC Augsburg v FSV Mainz 05?
1–1, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Augsburg v FSV Mainz 05?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.56 for FC Augsburg and 1.39 for FSV Mainz 05.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg v FSV Mainz 05?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet or FSV Mainz 05 fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 2 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
