Sunday 22 November · 17:30 · 10th matchday
Werder Bremen – Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
5th · attack 1.03 · defence 1.28
Hamburger SV
15th · attack 0.84 · defence 1.31
Our model makes Werder Bremen favourites for Werder Bremen – Hamburger SV, at 52%. Kick-off 22 November 2026, 17:30.
Across the full score distribution, Werder Bremen win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Hamburger SV win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.72 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.08 for Hamburger SV, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.72 for Werder Bremen, 1.08 for Hamburger SV.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Werder Bremen wins; above it, Hamburger SV wins.
| Werder Bremen \ Hamburger SV | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Werder Bremen goals in rows, Hamburger SV goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Werder Bremen v Hamburger SV?
Werder Bremen, at 52%. The full split is Werder Bremen 52%, draw 25%, Hamburger SV 23%.
What is the most likely score in Werder Bremen v Hamburger SV?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Werder Bremen v Hamburger SV?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.72 for Werder Bremen and 1.08 for Hamburger SV.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen v Hamburger SV?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet or Hamburger SV fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 2 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
