Friday 27 November · 20:30 · 11th matchday
Werder Bremen – Borussia Mönchengladbach
Werder Bremen
6th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.26
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · attack 1.03 · defence 1.37
Our model makes Werder Bremen favourites for Werder Bremen – Borussia Mönchengladbach, at 48%. Kick-off 27 November 2026, 20:30.
Across the full score distribution, Werder Bremen win 48% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Borussia Mönchengladbach win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.77 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.29 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 61%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.77 for Werder Bremen, 1.29 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Werder Bremen wins; above it, Borussia Mönchengladbach wins.
| Werder Bremen \ Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Werder Bremen goals in rows, Borussia Mönchengladbach goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Werder Bremen v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Werder Bremen, at 48%. The full split is Werder Bremen 48%, draw 25%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 27%.
What is the most likely score in Werder Bremen v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
1–1, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Werder Bremen v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.77 for Werder Bremen and 1.29 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Both teams score in 61% of simulations. Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet or Borussia Mönchengladbach fail to score in the remaining 39%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
