Modelling · England
Premier League
Analysis — Premier League
Short pieces built on the same computations as the tables. The figures in them are not copied out: they follow the model.
FixturePremier LeagueJoão Pedro: one certain fixture, and a date that can slip
The injury feed declares a return on 17 October, the very day of Everton – Chelsea. The absence therefore covers only one fixture for certain, where it costs 1.72 points of win probability. If the date slips, it is a different fixture, and a different figure.
Title racePremier LeagueWho will win the Premier League in 2026-27?
Manchester City and Arsenal are level on points and share 93% of the title. The model separates them on one detail — and England's best defence is not the one you would guess.
FixturePremier LeagueFoden is suspended, and City have never looked stronger
Sent off in the derby, the Englishman misses Sunderland's visit. Our model gives Manchester City 71% without him — and has them going backwards if he came in. This is not a charge against Foden; it is a survey of the area he used to own.
TitlePremier LeagueArsenal are not playing this derby. They stand to gain or lose nine points of probability.
Six days ago the English title was a coin flip. One win at Sunderland later, Arsenal lead by seventeen points of probability — nine of which rest on a match Manchester City have yet to play. It kicks off this afternoon at Old Trafford.