Modelling · England
Premier League
Table and projections
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | Projected points | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 5 | 15 | +8 | 58% | 80.270–90 | 0% |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 5 | 12 | +4 | 31% | 76.166–86 | 0% |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 10 | +11 | 7% | 65.153–77 | 0% |
| 4 |  Brentford | 5 | 9 | +6 | 1% | 59.349–70 | 0% |
| 5 |  Leeds United | 5 | 9 | +4 | 0% | 56.346–67 | 1% |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 5 | 9 | +3 | 2% | 62.553–72 | 0% |
| 7 |  Everton | 5 | 9 | +3 | 0% | 52.943–63 | 2% |
| 8 |  Hull Citypromoted | 5 | 8 | +2 | 0% | 45.233–57 | 18% |
| 9 |  Newcastle United | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 55.045–65 | 1% |
| 10 |  Chelsea | 5 | 7 | -2 | 0% | 53.343–64 | 2% |
| 11 |  Ipswich Townpromoted | 5 | 6 | -4 | 0% | 36.026–46 | 56% |
| 12 |  Manchester United | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 56.847–67 | 1% |
| 13 |  Nottingham Forest | 5 | 5 | -1 | 0% | 49.638–61 | 7% |
| 14 |  Sunderland | 5 | 4 | -4 | 0% | 43.032–54 | 23% |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 5 | 4 | -5 | 0% | 41.532–52 | 26% |
| 16 |  Aston Villa | 5 | 4 | -5 | 0% | 49.738–61 | 7% |
| 17 |  AFC Bournemouth | 5 | 3 | -2 | 0% | 51.341–61 | 3% |
| 18 |  Coventry Citypromoted | 5 | 3 | -9 | 0% | 24.412–39 | 86% |
| 19 |  Fulham | 5 | 2 | -3 | 0% | 42.133–52 | 22% |
| 20 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 2 | -6 | 0% | 37.628–47 | 45% |
50,000 simulated seasons from a Dixon-Coles model fitted on 2,652 matches, with a 180-day half-life — an effective sample of 530. The points interval covers 80% of simulated seasons.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
1234567891011121314151617181920Manchester City58279Arsenal3140167Brighton & Hove Albion714211511865Liverpool717171411975Brentford10131212109765Manchester United69101110109776Leeds United6891010998765Newcastle United79999988765Chelsea578899988765Everton567899998765AFC Bournemouth567899109876Aston Villa566788888765Nottingham Forest567788888765Hull City56778999987Sunderland5689101111119Fulham56810121313118Crystal Palace6791113131310Tottenham Hotspur569121418208Ipswich Town57913182611Coventry City61269
Manchester City58279Arsenal3140167Brighton & Hove Albion714211511865Liverpool717171411975Brentford10131212109765Manchester United69101110109776Leeds United6891010998765Newcastle United79999988765Chelsea578899988765Everton567899998765AFC Bournemouth567899109876Aston Villa566788888765Nottingham Forest567788888765Hull City56778999987Sunderland5689101111119Fulham56810121313118Crystal Palace6791113131310Tottenham Hotspur569121418208Ipswich Town57913182611Coventry City61269The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
Manchester City1.5eArsenal2.0eBrighton & Hove Albion4.6e