Monday 23 November · 21:00 · 11th matchday
Brentford – Everton
Brentford
6th · attack 1.22 · defence 1.06
Everton
7th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.00
Our model makes Brentford favourites for Brentford – Everton, at 49%. Kick-off 23 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Brentford win 49% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Everton win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.52 goals for Brentford and 0.96 for Everton, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.52 for Brentford, 0.96 for Everton.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Brentford wins; above it, Everton wins.
| Brentford \ Everton | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Brentford goals in rows, Everton goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Brentford v Everton?
Brentford, at 49%. The full split is Brentford 49%, draw 28%, Everton 23%.
What is the most likely score in Brentford v Everton?
1–1, which comes up in 13.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brentford v Everton?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.52 for Brentford and 0.96 for Everton.
Will both teams score in Brentford v Everton?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. Brentford keep a clean sheet or Everton fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
