Sunday 22 November · 15:00 · 11th matchday
Hull City – Brighton & Hove Albion
Hull City
11th · attack 0.84 · defence 1.11
Brighton & Hove Albion
3rd · attack 1.40 · defence 0.92
Our model makes Brighton & Hove Albion favourites for Hull City – Brighton & Hove Albion, at 50%. Kick-off 22 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Hull City win 22% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Brighton & Hove Albion win 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 0.96 goals for Hull City and 1.56 for Brighton & Hove Albion, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 0.96 for Hull City, 1.56 for Brighton & Hove Albion.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Hull City wins; above it, Brighton & Hove Albion wins.
| Hull City \ Brighton & Hove Albion | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Hull City goals in rows, Brighton & Hove Albion goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion?
Brighton & Hove Albion, at 50%. The full split is Hull City 22%, draw 27%, Brighton & Hove Albion 50%.
What is the most likely score in Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion?
1–1, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 0.96 for Hull City and 1.56 for Brighton & Hove Albion.
Will both teams score in Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Hull City keep a clean sheet or Brighton & Hove Albion fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
