Friday 27 November · 21:00 · 12th matchday
Nottingham Forest – Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
16th · attack 0.97 · defence 1.05
Chelsea
5th · attack 1.27 · defence 1.18
Our model makes Nottingham Forest favourites for Nottingham Forest – Chelsea, at 39%. Kick-off 27 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Nottingham Forest win 39% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Chelsea win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.45 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.34 for Chelsea, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.45 for Nottingham Forest, 1.34 for Chelsea.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Nottingham Forest wins; above it, Chelsea wins.
| Nottingham Forest \ Chelsea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Nottingham Forest goals in rows, Chelsea goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Nottingham Forest v Chelsea?
Nottingham Forest, at 39%. The full split is Nottingham Forest 39%, draw 26%, Chelsea 34%.
What is the most likely score in Nottingham Forest v Chelsea?
1–1, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nottingham Forest v Chelsea?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.45 for Nottingham Forest and 1.34 for Chelsea.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest v Chelsea?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet or Chelsea fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
