Analyses
À la une
MethodIs PSG the Champions League favourite? Our two models rank it 1st and 10th
Our two models each replayed the 2026-2027 Champions League 50,000 times from the same 18 matches already played, and their rankings correlate at 0.944. On PSG, one gives a 24.5% title chance, the other 2.2%. The whole gap comes down to one question of method: should a squad be judged by its league's average?
FixturePremier LeagueJoão Pedro: one certain fixture, and a date that can slip
The injury feed declares a return on 17 October, the very day of Everton – Chelsea. The absence therefore covers only one fixture for certain, where it costs 1.72 points of win probability. If the date slips, it is a different fixture, and a different figure.
SurvivalLigue 1Le Mans: in fourteen days, the model changed its mind
The promoted side's survival probability went from 43.6% to 68.9% in two weeks. Across 149 promotions recorded since 2020, that kind of swing is rare — and the numbers say exactly where it comes from.
Title raceBundesligaWho will win the Bundesliga in 2026-27?
Bayern are champions in 86% of simulated seasons, the highest title probability in Europe. Their attacking index is the strongest of our six leagues — and it is the attack, not the defence, that closes this league.
Course au titre
11Title raceBundesligaWho will win the Bundesliga in 2026-27?
Bayern are champions in 86% of simulated seasons, the highest title probability in Europe. Their attacking index is the strongest of our six leagues — and it is the attack, not the defence, that closes this league.
Title raceLa LigaWho will win La Liga in 2026-27?
Barcelona win the title in 84% of simulated seasons with Europe's second-best attack. Real Madrid finish second in 62% of them — and the model explains why six points in September weigh so heavily in Spain.
Title raceLigue 1Who will win Ligue 1 in 2026-27?
PSG sit tenth in the table and win the title in 63% of simulated seasons. Monaco lead the table and win it in 16%. Here is why, and what 50,000 simulations say about every place in the league.
Méthode
5MethodIs PSG the Champions League favourite? Our two models rank it 1st and 10th
Our two models each replayed the 2026-2027 Champions League 50,000 times from the same 18 matches already played, and their rankings correlate at 0.944. On PSG, one gives a 24.5% title chance, the other 2.2%. The whole gap comes down to one question of method: should a squad be judged by its league's average?
Power rankingLigue 1Marseille 17th and fifth: what the twelve clubs in this position went on to do
Twelve places separate Olympique de Marseille's position in the table from their estimated strength — the largest gap across the six leagues we follow. We replayed matchday 5 of 33 seasons to see where clubs in this situation end up.
Rencontres
4FixturePremier LeagueJoão Pedro: one certain fixture, and a date that can slip
The injury feed declares a return on 17 October, the very day of Everton – Chelsea. The absence therefore covers only one fixture for certain, where it costs 1.72 points of win probability. If the date slips, it is a different fixture, and a different figure.
FixtureLigue 1What Hakimi's absence actually costs PSG
Two and a half points of win probability at the Vélodrome. Four Paris players would cost more. And for once, our two models disagree about this match.