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FixturePremier LeagueJoão Pedro: one certain fixture, and a date that can slip
The injury feed declares a return on 17 October, the very day of Everton – Chelsea. The absence therefore covers only one fixture for certain, where it costs 1.72 points of win probability. If the date slips, it is a different fixture, and a different figure.
FixtureLigue 1What Hakimi's absence actually costs PSG
Two and a half points of win probability at the Vélodrome. Four Paris players would cost more. And for once, our two models disagree about this match.
FixturePremier LeagueFoden is suspended, and City have never looked stronger
Sent off in the derby, the Englishman misses Sunderland's visit. Our model gives Manchester City 71% without him — and has them going backwards if he came in. This is not a charge against Foden; it is a survey of the area he used to own.
FixturePrimeira LigaPorto face the Clássico without Froholdt, and miss Rodrigo Mora far more
The Dane's absence costs less than a point at the Dragão. The player Porto sold to Roma this summer would be worth four in the same part of the pitch.