Analyses
Méthode
5
MethodIs PSG the Champions League favourite? Our two models rank it 1st and 10th
Our two models each replayed the 2026-2027 Champions League 50,000 times from the same 18 matches already played, and their rankings correlate at 0.944. On PSG, one gives a 24.5% title chance, the other 2.2%. The whole gap comes down to one question of method: should a squad be judged by its league's average?
Power rankingLigue 1Marseille 17th and fifth: what the twelve clubs in this position went on to do
Twelve places separate Olympique de Marseille's position in the table from their estimated strength — the largest gap across the six leagues we follow. We replayed matchday 5 of 33 seasons to see where clubs in this situation end up.
MethodPrimeira LigaDid Porto sell Rodrigo Mora too cheaply?
Twenty-five million euros for a nineteen-year-old raised at the club, the thirty-eighth best passer in our database out of two and a half thousand. Our model says sixty. Here is where the gap comes from.
MethodWhoever created more clear chances won all six matches. That proves almost nothing.
Six Champions League fixtures last night, and a perfect record on one statistic — while possession says nothing at all. What the match data shows, and what it cannot show.
Power rankingLigue 1The table lies: who is undervalued in Ligue 1
Lens are eleventh and second. Marseille tenth and third. Three matchdays are enough to open gaps the points column does not show.