Analyses
Course au titre
11
Title raceBundesligaWho will win the Bundesliga in 2026-27?
Bayern are champions in 86% of simulated seasons, the highest title probability in Europe. Their attacking index is the strongest of our six leagues — and it is the attack, not the defence, that closes this league.
Title raceLa LigaWho will win La Liga in 2026-27?
Barcelona win the title in 84% of simulated seasons with Europe's second-best attack. Real Madrid finish second in 62% of them — and the model explains why six points in September weigh so heavily in Spain.
Title raceLigue 1Who will win Ligue 1 in 2026-27?
PSG sit tenth in the table and win the title in 63% of simulated seasons. Monaco lead the table and win it in 16%. Here is why, and what 50,000 simulations say about every place in the league.
Title raceWho will win the Champions League in 2026-27?
Arsenal lift the trophy in 25% of simulations, ahead of Manchester City and Bayern. Real Madrid fall to 4%, PSG to 2.2%. Here is the full simulation of the 144-match league phase and the knockout bracket.
Title racePremier LeagueWho will win the Premier League in 2026-27?
Manchester City and Arsenal are level on points and share 93% of the title. The model separates them on one detail — and England's best defence is not the one you would guess.
Title racePrimeira LigaWho will win the Primeira Liga in 2026-27?
Benfica 41.8%, Porto 41.2%. Six tenths of a point separate the two favourites — the tightest race of our six leagues. And the club with Portugal's best attack is neither of them.
Title raceSerie AWho will win Serie A in 2026-27?
Inter win the Scudetto in 57% of simulated seasons without leading the table. And the model rates Como Italy's third-strongest side — ahead of Juventus, Napoli and Milan combined.
TitlePremier LeagueArsenal are not playing this derby. They stand to gain or lose nine points of probability.
Six days ago the English title was a coin flip. One win at Sunderland later, Arsenal lead by seventeen points of probability — nine of which rest on a match Manchester City have yet to play. It kicks off this afternoon at Old Trafford.
TitleLigue 1PSG are thirteenth. The model still makes them champions.
Two points from nine, and yet the highest title probability in the league. This is not a bug: it is what happens when three matchdays meet seven seasons of data.
TitleBundesligaBayern are sixth, and champions in 85% of seasons
It is the widest gap across the six leagues we cover: two matchdays adrift in the table, and the highest title probability in Europe.
TitlePrimeira LigaIn Portugal, three clubs and one point between them
Sporting, Porto, Benfica: the tightest of the six leagues we cover. Two of them are within two percentage points of each other.