Sunday 8 November · 19:00 · 11th matchday
Vitória Guimarães – Porto
Vitória Guimarães
15th · attack 1.07 · defence 0.98
Porto
1st · attack 1.72 · defence 0.60
Our model makes Porto favourites for Vitória Guimarães – Porto, at 60%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, Vitória Guimarães win 17% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Porto win 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 14.9% of simulations.
We expect 0.77 goals for Vitória Guimarães and 1.69 for Porto, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 43%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 0.77 for Vitória Guimarães, 1.69 for Porto.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Vitória Guimarães wins; above it, Porto wins.
| Vitória Guimarães \ Porto | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Vitória Guimarães goals in rows, Porto goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Vitória Guimarães v Porto?
Porto, at 60%. The full split is Vitória Guimarães 17%, draw 23%, Porto 60%.
What is the most likely score in Vitória Guimarães v Porto?
0–1, which comes up in 14.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vitória Guimarães v Porto?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 0.77 for Vitória Guimarães and 1.69 for Porto.
Will both teams score in Vitória Guimarães v Porto?
Both teams score in 43% of simulations. Vitória Guimarães keep a clean sheet or Porto fail to score in the remaining 57%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
