Modelling · Portugal
Primeira Liga
The teams
On the left, what happened; on the right, what the model makes of it. Goals per match are observed averages; attack and defence are estimates, adjusted for the quality of the opponents faced.
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | GF | GA | GF/m | GA/m | Attack | Defence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 7 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 2.57 | 0.43 | 1.72 | 0.59 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 7 | 16 | 22 | 7 | 3.14 | 1.00 | 1.96 | 0.66 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 7 | 15 | 17 | 8 | 2.43 | 1.14 | 2.12 | 0.69 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 7 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 1.57 | 0.57 | 0.91 | 0.95 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 7 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 1.43 | 1.00 | 1.09 | 1.19 |
| 6 |  Sporting Braga | 6 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 1.17 | 0.83 | 1.52 | 0.84 |
| 7 |  Academico Viseupromoted | 7 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| 8 |  Estrela Amadora | 7 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.90 | 1.25 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 6 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 1.29 | 1.57 | 0.95 | 1.16 |
| 11 |  Marítimopromoted | 7 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 1.14 | 1.71 | 0.89 | 1.23 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 7 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 1.14 | 2.00 | 0.97 | 1.12 |
| 13 |  Famalicão | 7 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 1.29 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 0.94 |
| 14 |  Vitória Guimarães | 7 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 0.71 | 1.14 | 1.08 | 0.98 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 7 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 1.00 | 2.14 | 0.89 | 1.19 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 7 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0.71 | 2.14 | 0.92 | 1.18 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 7 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0.43 | 2.29 | 0.85 | 1.14 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 7 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0.43 | 1.43 | 1.15 | 1.23 |
A promoted side that has played three matches does not carry three matches of information: its estimate is shrunk towards the average level of a promoted side, measured over 97 promotions observed since 2019.