Modelling · Portugal
Primeira Liga
Table and projections
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | Projected points | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 7 | 21 | +15 | 48% | 79.071–87 | 0% |
| 2 |  Benfica | 7 | 16 | +15 | 31% | 76.569–84 | 0% |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 7 | 15 | +9 | 21% | 74.566–82 | 0% |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 7 | 15 | +7 | 0% | 47.739–56 | 0% |
| 5 |  Arouca | 7 | 11 | +3 | 0% | 44.436–53 | 2% |
| 6 |  Sporting Braga | 6 | 11 | +2 | 0% | 60.852–69 | 0% |
| 7 |  Academico Viseupromoted | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 49.937–63 | 2% |
| 8 |  Estrela Amadora | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 37.429–46 | 13% |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 43.234–52 | 3% |
| 10 |  Alverca | 7 | 8 | -2 | 0% | 37.929–47 | 13% |
| 11 |  Marítimopromoted | 7 | 8 | -4 | 0% | 35.627–44 | 20% |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 7 | 8 | -6 | 0% | 40.732–49 | 6% |
| 13 |  Famalicão | 7 | 7 | +2 | 0% | 43.935–53 | 2% |
| 14 |  Vitória Guimarães | 7 | 5 | -3 | 0% | 41.433–50 | 4% |
| 15 |  Nacional | 7 | 4 | -8 | 0% | 31.323–40 | 43% |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 7 | 4 | -10 | 0% | 33.225–42 | 32% |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 7 | 4 | -13 | 0% | 32.824–41 | 35% |
| 18 |  Estoril | 7 | 2 | -7 | 0% | 34.226–43 | 26% |
50,000 simulated seasons from a Dixon-Coles model fitted on 1,987 matches, with a 1095-day half-life — an effective sample of 1,644. The points interval covers 80% of simulated seasons.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
123456789101112131415161718Porto483119Benfica313629Sporting CP2131426Sporting Braga860196Academico Viseu1523139765Santa Clara17201512975Arouca10121312119865Famalicão91213121110875Gil Vicente710121111109765Vitória Guimarães5810101110109775Moreirense68910101098765Alverca5678991099875Estrela Amadora678910101010985Marítimo568910111111119Estoril57891011121313Rio Ave5791012141616Casa Pia5681012141619Nacional57811141726
Porto483119Benfica313629Sporting CP2131426Sporting Braga860196Academico Viseu1523139765Santa Clara17201512975Arouca10121312119865Famalicão91213121110875Gil Vicente710121111109765Vitória Guimarães5810101110109775Moreirense68910101098765Alverca5678991099875Estrela Amadora678910101010985Marítimo568910111111119Estoril57891011121313Rio Ave5791012141616Casa Pia5681012141619Nacional57811141726The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
Sporting CP2.3eBenfica2.1ePorto1.7e