Modelling · Portugal
Primeira Liga
Analysis — Primeira Liga
Short pieces built on the same computations as the tables. The figures in them are not copied out: they follow the model.
Title racePrimeira LigaWho will win the Primeira Liga in 2026-27?
Benfica 41.8%, Porto 41.2%. Six tenths of a point separate the two favourites — the tightest race of our six leagues. And the club with Portugal's best attack is neither of them.
MethodPrimeira LigaDid Porto sell Rodrigo Mora too cheaply?
Twenty-five million euros for a nineteen-year-old raised at the club, the thirty-eighth best passer in our database out of two and a half thousand. Our model says sixty. Here is where the gap comes from.
FixturePrimeira LigaPorto face the Clássico without Froholdt, and miss Rodrigo Mora far more
The Dane's absence costs less than a point at the Dragão. The player Porto sold to Roma this summer would be worth four in the same part of the pitch.
TitlePrimeira LigaIn Portugal, three clubs and one point between them
Sporting, Porto, Benfica: the tightest of the six leagues we cover. Two of them are within two percentage points of each other.