Saturday 28 November · 21:30 · 12th matchday
Vitória Guimarães – Estrela Amadora
Vitória Guimarães
14th · attack 1.09 · defence 0.97
Estrela Amadora
12th · attack 0.89 · defence 1.27
Our model makes Vitória Guimarães favourites for Vitória Guimarães – Estrela Amadora, at 57%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 21:30.
Across the full score distribution, Vitória Guimarães win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Estrela Amadora win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 13.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.66 goals for Vitória Guimarães and 0.87 for Estrela Amadora, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.66 for Vitória Guimarães, 0.87 for Estrela Amadora.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Vitória Guimarães wins; above it, Estrela Amadora wins.
| Vitória Guimarães \ Estrela Amadora | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Vitória Guimarães goals in rows, Estrela Amadora goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Vitória Guimarães v Estrela Amadora?
Vitória Guimarães, at 57%. The full split is Vitória Guimarães 57%, draw 23%, Estrela Amadora 20%.
What is the most likely score in Vitória Guimarães v Estrela Amadora?
1–0, which comes up in 13.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vitória Guimarães v Estrela Amadora?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.66 for Vitória Guimarães and 0.87 for Estrela Amadora.
Will both teams score in Vitória Guimarães v Estrela Amadora?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Vitória Guimarães keep a clean sheet or Estrela Amadora fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
