Sunday 8 November · 16:30 · 11th matchday
Santa Clara – Gil Vicente
Santa Clara
4th · attack 0.91 · defence 0.95
Gil Vicente
8th · attack 0.99 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Santa Clara favourites for Santa Clara – Gil Vicente, at 39%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 16:30.
Across the full score distribution, Santa Clara win 39% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Gil Vicente win 32%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.08 goals for Santa Clara and 0.94 for Gil Vicente, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 33% of the time and both teams scoring 40%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.08 for Santa Clara, 0.94 for Gil Vicente.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Santa Clara wins; above it, Gil Vicente wins.
| Santa Clara \ Gil Vicente | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Santa Clara goals in rows, Gil Vicente goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Santa Clara v Gil Vicente?
Santa Clara, at 39%. The full split is Santa Clara 39%, draw 29%, Gil Vicente 32%.
What is the most likely score in Santa Clara v Gil Vicente?
1–0, which comes up in 14.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Santa Clara v Gil Vicente?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 33% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 60% of the time. Expected goals are 1.08 for Santa Clara and 0.94 for Gil Vicente.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara v Gil Vicente?
Both teams score in 40% of simulations. Santa Clara keep a clean sheet or Gil Vicente fail to score in the remaining 60%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
