Sunday 8 November · 21:30 · 11th matchday
Rio Ave – Sporting Braga
Rio Ave
14th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.19
Sporting Braga
9th · attack 1.51 · defence 0.85
Our model makes Sporting Braga favourites for Rio Ave – Sporting Braga, at 58%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 21:30.
Across the full score distribution, Rio Ave win 20% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Sporting Braga win 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 12.0% of simulations.
We expect 0.95 goals for Rio Ave and 1.80 for Sporting Braga, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 0.95 for Rio Ave, 1.80 for Sporting Braga.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Rio Ave wins; above it, Sporting Braga wins.
| Rio Ave \ Sporting Braga | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Rio Ave goals in rows, Sporting Braga goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Rio Ave v Sporting Braga?
Sporting Braga, at 58%. The full split is Rio Ave 20%, draw 22%, Sporting Braga 58%.
What is the most likely score in Rio Ave v Sporting Braga?
0–1, which comes up in 12.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rio Ave v Sporting Braga?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 0.95 for Rio Ave and 1.80 for Sporting Braga.
Will both teams score in Rio Ave v Sporting Braga?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Rio Ave keep a clean sheet or Sporting Braga fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
