Sunday 29 November · 21:30 · 12th matchday
Porto – Sporting CP
Porto
1st · attack 1.73 · defence 0.59
Sporting CP
3rd · attack 2.10 · defence 0.69
Our model makes Porto favourites for Porto – Sporting CP, at 42%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 21:30.
Across the full score distribution, Porto win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Sporting CP win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.44 goals for Porto and 1.24 for Sporting CP, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.44 for Porto, 1.24 for Sporting CP.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Porto wins; above it, Sporting CP wins.
| Porto \ Sporting CP | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Porto goals in rows, Sporting CP goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Porto v Sporting CP?
Porto, at 42%. The full split is Porto 42%, draw 25%, Sporting CP 33%.
What is the most likely score in Porto v Sporting CP?
1–1, which comes up in 11.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Porto v Sporting CP?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.44 for Porto and 1.24 for Sporting CP.
Will both teams score in Porto v Sporting CP?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Porto keep a clean sheet or Sporting CP fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
