Saturday 7 November · 16:30 · 11th matchday
Nacional – Academico Viseu
Nacional
16th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.21
Academico Viseu
6th · attack 1.17 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Academico Viseu favourites for Nacional – Academico Viseu, at 46%. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 16:30.
Across the full score distribution, Nacional win 29% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Academico Viseu win 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.06 goals for Nacional and 1.42 for Academico Viseu, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.06 for Nacional, 1.42 for Academico Viseu.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Nacional wins; above it, Academico Viseu wins.
| Nacional \ Academico Viseu | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Nacional goals in rows, Academico Viseu goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Nacional v Academico Viseu?
Academico Viseu, at 46%. The full split is Nacional 29%, draw 26%, Academico Viseu 46%.
What is the most likely score in Nacional v Academico Viseu?
0–1, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nacional v Academico Viseu?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 1.06 for Nacional and 1.42 for Academico Viseu.
Will both teams score in Nacional v Academico Viseu?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. Nacional keep a clean sheet or Academico Viseu fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
