Saturday 28 November · 16:30 · 12th matchday
Moreirense – Santa Clara
Moreirense
9th · attack 0.98 · defence 1.11
Santa Clara
4th · attack 0.93 · defence 0.95
Our model makes Moreirense favourites for Moreirense – Santa Clara, at 38% — but only 4.6% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 16:30.
Across the full score distribution, Moreirense win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Santa Clara win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 13.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.12 goals for Moreirense and 1.03 for Santa Clara, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 36% of the time and both teams scoring 42%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.12 for Moreirense, 1.03 for Santa Clara.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Moreirense wins; above it, Santa Clara wins.
| Moreirense \ Santa Clara | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Moreirense goals in rows, Santa Clara goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Moreirense v Santa Clara?
Moreirense, at 38%. The full split is Moreirense 38%, draw 28%, Santa Clara 34%.
What is the most likely score in Moreirense v Santa Clara?
1–0, which comes up in 13.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Moreirense v Santa Clara?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 36% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 62% of the time. Expected goals are 1.12 for Moreirense and 1.03 for Santa Clara.
Will both teams score in Moreirense v Santa Clara?
Both teams score in 42% of simulations. Moreirense keep a clean sheet or Santa Clara fail to score in the remaining 58%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
