Friday 27 November · 21:15 · 12th matchday
Marítimo – Nacional
Marítimo
15th · attack 0.85 · defence 1.27
Nacional
13th · attack 0.89 · defence 1.18
Our model makes Marítimo favourites for Marítimo – Nacional, at 38% — but only 3.3% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 27 November 2026, 21:15.
Across the full score distribution, Marítimo win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Nacional win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.20 goals for Marítimo and 1.13 for Nacional, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.20 for Marítimo, 1.13 for Nacional.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Marítimo wins; above it, Nacional wins.
| Marítimo \ Nacional | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Marítimo goals in rows, Nacional goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Marítimo v Nacional?
Marítimo, at 38%. The full split is Marítimo 38%, draw 27%, Nacional 35%.
What is the most likely score in Marítimo v Nacional?
1–1, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Marítimo v Nacional?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 67% of the time. Expected goals are 1.20 for Marítimo and 1.13 for Nacional.
Will both teams score in Marítimo v Nacional?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Marítimo keep a clean sheet or Nacional fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
