Sunday 29 November · 19:00 · 12th matchday
Gil Vicente – Estoril
Gil Vicente
7th · attack 1.00 · defence 0.97
Estoril
18th · attack 1.12 · defence 1.26
Our model makes Gil Vicente favourites for Gil Vicente – Estoril, at 47%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, Gil Vicente win 47% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Estoril win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 11.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.51 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.09 for Estoril, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.51 for Gil Vicente, 1.09 for Estoril.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Gil Vicente wins; above it, Estoril wins.
| Gil Vicente \ Estoril | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Gil Vicente goals in rows, Estoril goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Gil Vicente v Estoril?
Gil Vicente, at 47%. The full split is Gil Vicente 47%, draw 25%, Estoril 28%.
What is the most likely score in Gil Vicente v Estoril?
1–0, which comes up in 11.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Gil Vicente v Estoril?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.51 for Gil Vicente and 1.09 for Estoril.
Will both teams score in Gil Vicente v Estoril?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Gil Vicente keep a clean sheet or Estoril fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
