Friday 6 November · 21:45 · 11th matchday
Famalicão – Arouca
Famalicão
13th · attack 1.06 · defence 0.96
Arouca
5th · attack 1.08 · defence 1.18
Our model makes Famalicão favourites for Famalicão – Arouca, at 49%. Kick-off 6 November 2026, 21:45.
Across the full score distribution, Famalicão win 49% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Arouca win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.52 goals for Famalicão and 1.04 for Arouca, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.52 for Famalicão, 1.04 for Arouca.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Famalicão wins; above it, Arouca wins.
| Famalicão \ Arouca | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Famalicão goals in rows, Arouca goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Famalicão v Arouca?
Famalicão, at 49%. The full split is Famalicão 49%, draw 25%, Arouca 27%.
What is the most likely score in Famalicão v Arouca?
1–0, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Famalicão v Arouca?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.52 for Famalicão and 1.04 for Arouca.
Will both teams score in Famalicão v Arouca?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Famalicão keep a clean sheet or Arouca fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
