Sunday 8 November · 21:30 · 11th matchday
Estrela Amadora – Benfica
Estrela Amadora
10th · attack 0.89 · defence 1.24
Benfica
2nd · attack 1.95 · defence 0.66
Our model makes Benfica favourites for Estrela Amadora – Benfica, at 76%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 21:30.
Across the full score distribution, Estrela Amadora win 9% of the time, the draw comes up 15% and Benfica win 76%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–2, in 12.8% of simulations.
We expect 0.71 goals for Estrela Amadora and 2.43 for Benfica, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 0.71 for Estrela Amadora, 2.43 for Benfica.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Estrela Amadora wins; above it, Benfica wins.
| Estrela Amadora \ Benfica | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Estrela Amadora goals in rows, Benfica goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Estrela Amadora v Benfica?
Benfica, at 76%. The full split is Estrela Amadora 9%, draw 15%, Benfica 76%.
What is the most likely score in Estrela Amadora v Benfica?
0–2, which comes up in 12.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Estrela Amadora v Benfica?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 0.71 for Estrela Amadora and 2.43 for Benfica.
Will both teams score in Estrela Amadora v Benfica?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Estrela Amadora keep a clean sheet or Benfica fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
