Sunday 8 November · 16:30 · 11th matchday
Estoril – Marítimo
Estoril
18th · attack 1.14 · defence 1.24
Marítimo
11th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.23
Our model makes Estoril favourites for Estoril – Marítimo, at 51%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 16:30.
Across the full score distribution, Estoril win 51% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Marítimo win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.70 goals for Estoril and 1.11 for Marítimo, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.70 for Estoril, 1.11 for Marítimo.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Estoril wins; above it, Marítimo wins.
| Estoril \ Marítimo | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Estoril goals in rows, Marítimo goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Estoril v Marítimo?
Estoril, at 51%. The full split is Estoril 51%, draw 23%, Marítimo 25%.
What is the most likely score in Estoril v Marítimo?
1–1, which comes up in 10.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Estoril v Marítimo?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.70 for Estoril and 1.11 for Marítimo.
Will both teams score in Estoril v Marítimo?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Estoril keep a clean sheet or Marítimo fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
