Monday 30 November · 21:15 · 12th matchday
Casa Pia – Sporting Braga
Casa Pia
16th · attack 0.85 · defence 1.12
Sporting Braga
8th · attack 1.51 · defence 0.85
Our model makes Sporting Braga favourites for Casa Pia – Sporting Braga, at 58%. Kick-off 30 November 2026, 21:15.
Across the full score distribution, Casa Pia win 20% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Sporting Braga win 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 13.7% of simulations.
We expect 0.86 goals for Casa Pia and 1.69 for Sporting Braga, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 0.86 for Casa Pia, 1.69 for Sporting Braga.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Casa Pia wins; above it, Sporting Braga wins.
| Casa Pia \ Sporting Braga | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Casa Pia goals in rows, Sporting Braga goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Casa Pia v Sporting Braga?
Sporting Braga, at 58%. The full split is Casa Pia 20%, draw 23%, Sporting Braga 58%.
What is the most likely score in Casa Pia v Sporting Braga?
0–1, which comes up in 13.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Casa Pia v Sporting Braga?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 0.86 for Casa Pia and 1.69 for Sporting Braga.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia v Sporting Braga?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Casa Pia keep a clean sheet or Sporting Braga fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
