Saturday 7 November · 19:00 · 11th matchday
Alverca – Casa Pia
Alverca
7th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.16
Casa Pia
17th · attack 0.84 · defence 1.14
Our model makes Alverca favourites for Alverca – Casa Pia, at 47%. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, Alverca win 47% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Casa Pia win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 13.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.40 goals for Alverca and 0.98 for Casa Pia, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.40 for Alverca, 0.98 for Casa Pia.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Alverca wins; above it, Casa Pia wins.
| Alverca \ Casa Pia | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Alverca goals in rows, Casa Pia goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Alverca v Casa Pia?
Alverca, at 47%. The full split is Alverca 47%, draw 26%, Casa Pia 27%.
What is the most likely score in Alverca v Casa Pia?
1–0, which comes up in 13.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Alverca v Casa Pia?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 68% of the time. Expected goals are 1.40 for Alverca and 0.98 for Casa Pia.
Will both teams score in Alverca v Casa Pia?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Alverca keep a clean sheet or Casa Pia fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
