Saturday 28 November · 19:00 · 12th matchday
Academico Viseu – Alverca
Academico Viseu
6th · attack 1.20 · defence 0.90
Alverca
11th · attack 0.97 · defence 1.12
Our model makes Academico Viseu favourites for Academico Viseu – Alverca, at 56%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, Academico Viseu win 56% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Alverca win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.62 goals for Academico Viseu and 0.87 for Alverca, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.62 for Academico Viseu, 0.87 for Alverca.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Academico Viseu wins; above it, Alverca wins.
| Academico Viseu \ Alverca | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Academico Viseu goals in rows, Alverca goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Academico Viseu v Alverca?
Academico Viseu, at 56%. The full split is Academico Viseu 56%, draw 24%, Alverca 21%.
What is the most likely score in Academico Viseu v Alverca?
1–0, which comes up in 14.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Academico Viseu v Alverca?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 1.62 for Academico Viseu and 0.87 for Alverca.
Will both teams score in Academico Viseu v Alverca?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Academico Viseu keep a clean sheet or Alverca fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
